Tetelo Copper Ore Project Is Expected to Commence Production, LME Copper Rose Sharply Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Friday, October 24, 2025

Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $10,799/mt, fluctuated considerably at the beginning of the session and touched a low of $10,784.5/mt, then fluctuated upward unilaterally and touched a high of $10,876/mt. Subsequently, the center of copper prices gradually moved down, finally closing at $10,817/mt, up 1.49%. Trading volume reached 24,000 lots and open interest reached 316,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2512 contract opened at 86,450 yuan/mt, touched a low of 86,230 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated upward and touched a high of 86,890 yuan/mt, before fluctuating downward and finally closing at 86,730 yuan/mt, up 1.34%. Trading volume reached 67,000 lots and open interest reached 255,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:

(1) On October 22, the Tetelo copper mine project in Uíge Province, northern Angola, is expected to commence production. The mine is controlled by Chinese company Shining Star Icarus, with a total investment of approximately $250 million. Open-pit mining will be used for the first two years, with an expected annual output of approximately 25,000 mt of copper concentrates, and it will transition to underground mining in H2 2026. This move marks a key step for Angola in copper mine capacity and releases a positive signal for attracting more international mining investment to the country.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On October 23, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2511 contract were at a discount of 30 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SMM #1 copper cathode prices were 85,290-85,690 yuan/mt. In the morning, the SHFE copper 2511 contract gradually fell from 85,500 yuan/mt, then surged to around 85,660 yuan/mt near 10 a.m., before slightly paring gains. The inter-month price spread fluctuated between a discount of 40 yuan/mt and a discount of 20 yuan/mt. Import losses for front-month SHFE copper widened to around 900 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, as it is Friday, trading volume is expected to increase WoW, but if copper prices continue to approach 86,000 yuan/mt, spot premiums for SHFE copper may continue to be suppressed.

(2) Guangdong: On October 23, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were at a premium of 30 yuan/mt to 100 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 65 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/mt to 10 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 20 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 85,440 yuan/mt, up 520 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of SX-EW copper was 85,355 yuan/mt, up 515 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, as copper prices rose again, consumption weakened, and market trading was quiet.

(3) Imported copper: On October 23, warrant prices were $35-43/mt, QP November, with the average price up $4/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $42-64/mt, QP November, with the average price up $3/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $2-16/mt, QP November, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in late October.

(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on October 23, the futures closing price was 85,590 yuan/mt, up 580 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 10 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 300 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 77,200-77,400 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,366 yuan/mt, up 241 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,720 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, imports of recycled copper raw materials in September were 184,100 mt, up 2.63% MoM and 14.8% YoY. Under current circumstances, customs inspections of certificates of origin, which have slowed the customs clearance speed of recycled copper raw materials, have not yet had a significant impact on September imports. However, import traders expect that imports of recycled copper raw materials in October will be affected by extended customs clearance times due to certificate of origin inspections, leading to a decline in clearance volume. SMM expects imports of recycled copper raw materials in October to drop by 5,000-6,000 mt in physical content.

(5) Inventory: On October 22, LME copper cathode inventory increased by 75 mt to 136,925 mt; on October 23, SHFE warrant inventory decreased by 505 mt to 36,048 mt.

Prices: On the macro front, the Russia-Ukraine situation remains tense. Zelensky announced that Ukraine already possesses domestically produced missiles with a range of 3,000 km and firmly refuses territorial concessions. Putin responded that new sanctions are unlikely to shake Russia's economic fundamentals. The intensifying geopolitical game has boosted market risk-off sentiment, supporting copper prices. Meanwhile, the communique of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee was released. The CPC Central Committee will hold a press conference on the morning of the 24th to introduce and interpret the spirit of the plenum. The market maintains an optimistic outlook on future copper demand, further supporting copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply side, arrivals of both imported and domestic supplies decreased, leading to relatively tight overall supply. Demand side, although copper prices remain high, downstream acceptance of copper prices is slowly improving, with some rigid demand being released. Inventory side, as of Thursday, October 23, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions across China decreased by 5,000 mt from Monday to 181,600 mt. Overall, copper prices are expected to have limited upside potential today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]